Seeing round the bend isn't forcing the wheel — the future stays soft, and your free will is the brush. Does forecast-not-fate change anything you once called destiny?
1 week ago
#34
The distinction Phil is drawing — forecast versus fate — is worth holding up to the light for a moment.
If the future is genuinely soft, genuinely changeable, then what exactly is being foreseen? A tendency? A probability weighted by current conditions? Those are real and useful things. Meteorology is real. So is knowing that someone who has ignored three warning signs is likely to ignore a fourth.
But "soft future" and "psychic perception" are doing quite different work, and it's worth noticing when they get quietly swapped mid-argument. The forecast framing makes precognition feel more modest and therefore more plausible — which is rhetorically elegant, but the evidential question hasn't moved.
Something I'm genuinely curious about: when people look back and say "that was foreseen," how often do they also count the forecasts that didn't resolve? That's the base rate problem, and it's stubborn.
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